習近平對香港「最新指示」將用「成都經驗」？(組圖)

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2011-2019年/香港反送中
習近平對香港「最新指示」將用「成都經驗」？


習近平對香港「最新指示」將用「成都經驗」？（Kazuhiro NOGI – Pool/Getty Images）

中共高層北戴河密會進入尾聲，據悉，其中香港反送中事件這個敏感議題被重點討論。資深評論人林和立8月12日在《蘋果日報》上發表的文章，引述了大陸消息人士的提供的信息，習近平對香港問題已有「最新指示」，即：「無需動用部隊，用嚴刑峻法盡快平亂，寸土不讓。」消息指，北京命令已由中聯辦控制的香港警隊，要「多抓人」並加重判刑。雖然不確定消息是否真實，但依據歷史和目前的情勢判斷，這一策略還是有相當的可能性。

嚴刑峻法 六四中的「成都經驗」

人們瞭解的六四，多數是北京天安門廣場的坦克、軍隊鎮壓，不為人廣知的是，六四中沒有動用坦克、軍隊，而是動用武警，用催淚彈、木棍、鐵棍的成都鎮壓行動。

看到武警、催淚彈、木棍、鐵棍這些詞匯，大家可以看出，香港目前的情況，與30年前六四的成都「小天安門」事件極其相似。

習近平指示的「嚴刑峻法盡快平亂」的參照模式，極有可能就是當年的「成都經驗」。

成都鎮壓行動，沒有動用坦克、軍隊，而是動用武警，用催淚彈、木棍、鐵棍。


成都鎮壓行動，沒有動用坦克、軍隊，而是動用武警，用催淚彈、木棍、鐵棍。（網絡圖片）

當年北京「六四」事件發生後，成都天府廣場上，警方動用了催淚瓦斯，並用警棍毆打示威者。大批抗議者被打傷，美國外交官員當時對《紐約時報》稱，當天有多達100名重傷者被抬出天府廣場。

1989年6月5日晚上到6月6日凌晨，成都錦江賓館發生了慘絕人寰的屠殺事件。武警在外國房客的眾目睽睽下，將逃入錦江賓館的示威者用鐵棍打死。

一位西方遊客從五樓的陽臺看到大約25人跪在庭院裡，然後臉朝地頭被按到地上，雙手捆在背後，「那些穿著白襯衣黑褲子的男子們走過去，用鐵棒砸那些在地上的腦袋。他們殺了他們，一個接一個，此時其餘的人仍在求饒。」與北京的論調一樣，成都的抗議者立即被當局稱為「政治風波」中的「暴徒」。

美國公共廣播電臺常駐中國記者林慕蓮（Louisa Lim）曾經採訪了一位成都母親，這位母親年僅17歲的兒子，於1989年6月6日騎單車回家時失蹤了。直至2000年，她才獲得一張兒子屍體的照片，口鼻周圍有血塊，鼻上有一大塊瘀傷，臉部腫脹變形，一隻眼睛微睜開。

目前港警已在世界的注視中多次使用暴力，並發生警黑勾結，用棍棒毆打示威者事件，如果採用更加殘暴的「嚴刑峻法」，很可能將參照「成都經驗」。

8月11日晚，香港警察在銅鑼灣、灣仔發射催淚彈清場。


8月11日晚，香港警察在銅鑼灣、灣仔發射催淚彈清場。（攝影：李天正/看中國）

加重判刑 毀滅年輕人的未來

港人此次「反送中」遊行，根本願望是爲了守護未來，消息指出的「多抓人」並加重判刑，是在以恐嚇、恐怖威脅「反送中」的年輕力量。

這個階段，中共可能采用的手段，很可能參照迫害法輪功、迫害維權律師的手段：以簽「保證書」的方式逼迫、用看不見外傷的方式毆打、藥物迫害、觀看洗腦宣傳片、不讓睡覺等方式摧毀人的意志。

中共不會撤回「暴動」定性

這次，港人的「五大訴求」中包括「撤回暴動定性」，其實，不論從中共最近的表態，還是歷史來看，中共都不可能撤回「暴動」定性。

1997年9月12日，被軟禁8年的前中共總書記趙紫陽曾寫信給中共高層，要求重新評價六四，他在信中寫到：

「請允許我向大會提出一個對『六四』事件重新評價的問題，請予以審議。令舉世震驚的『六四』事件已經過去了八個年頭，現在回過頭來看，有兩個問題應該採取實事求是的態度給予回答。

第一，那次學潮不管存在什麼偏激、錯誤和可指責之處，但把它定性為『反革命暴亂』是沒有根據的。既然不是反革命暴亂，就不應該採取武裝鎮壓的手段去解決。當時的武裝鎮壓雖然迅速地平息了事態，但不能不說人民也好，軍隊也好，黨和政府也好，我們的國家也好，都為當時的那種決策和行動付出了不小的代價。其消極影響直到今天依然在黨群關係、臺海兩岸關係以及我國的對外關係中繼續存在。由於這一事件的影響，還使十三大開始的政治改革中途夭折，政治體制改革嚴重滯後。以至在我國經濟上改革開放取得豐碩成果的同時，出現種種社會弊端迅速滋長蔓延，社會矛盾加劇，黨內外腐敗懲而不止、愈演愈烈的嚴重情況。」

「第二，對那次學潮當時是否可以找到一個更好的辦法，既可以避免流血又可以平息事態呢？我當時提出『在民主和法制的軌道上解決問題』，就是為了爭取這樣的結局。我現在仍然認為採取這種方式是可以不流血地平息事態的，至少可以避免嚴重的流血衝突。」

「對於『六四』事件的重新評價問題，遲早是要解決的。即使時間拖得再久，人們也不會淡忘掉的。早解決比晚解決好，主動解決比被動解決好，在形勢穩定時解決比出現某種麻煩時解決好。」

然而，「六四」過去了30年，這封信寫完22年，中共領導層換了幾代，不僅「六四」沒有重新評價，「暴動」定性沒有改變，社會矛盾和腐敗更是達到臨界點，香港「六四」又要重演，或許不是以北京模式重演，而是以成都模式重演，亦或是以香港模式重演。

可以看到，中共運用積累的經驗，永遠是最壞的經驗。不過，黑夜擋不住天亮，在中共70大限時，它開啓的一切模式都將是自毀模式。

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